Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

The Ukraine crisis is a huge systematic problem, which contains not only the reconstruction of the nation's internal politics, the choice of the future path of its development, but also the complicated relationship between Ukraine and Russia, and the geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the Western countries.

Therefore, no matter whether the Minsk cease-fire agreement, pushed forward by Germany and France and signed on February 12, can truly be implemented and end the fighting in eastern Ukraine or not, it will still be far from solving the entire crisis.

Yet, the point is not what the cease-fire deal has resolved, but what it has prevented, and what it has made each side aware of.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande started their shuttle diplomacy marathons among a series of meetings and conferences, preparing for the agreement way ahead the deal was sealed. And the cease-fire was finally agreed after over 17 painstaking hours of negotiations between leaders from Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France. All these efforts have left people with the impression that the Ukraine crisis has already reached the worst point.

Thus, a large number of media describe the crisis as the most severe geopolitical confrontation since the end of the Cold War, and the efforts of the German and French leaders are the last chance of saving peace in Europe.

It is not hard to understand why Ukraine has fallen into this tragic situation. For one thing, it was predicable that the conflict would be escalated since the crisis was lasting for such a long time without any solution.

But more importantly, the possibility of the US providing weapons as a realistic political option has exacerbated the already fragile state of affairs. So, rather than aiming to reach an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Merkel and Hollande's work is more aimed at buying time before the US adopts the policy.

Some in the West believe the deal is a great victory for Putin, but really it is the Ukrainian government that could truly benefit from it. Regardless of the terms of the agreement and the compromise between the two sides, what matters is that the Ukrainian government has more time to breathe and make adjustments now.

Since September last year, the Ukrainian rebels from the east have achieved a series of victories on the battlefield and have taken control of increasingly larger areas.

In contrast, the Ukrainian government's armed forces were suffering from low morale while losing territory and battles during the fierce fights. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko admitted that even with US arms, there still won't be certainty for government forces to gain the ascendancy in the conflicts.

For the Ukrainian government, military means have become an option with very little value or interest. No one is willing to abandon it, but if it keeps using force, there will be more damage, casualties, or lost territories. Poroshenko said at a news conference at the end of last year that there is no military solution to the Ukrainian crisis. However, his attitude remains ambiguous since he has been asking for military aid from the US.

As a matter of fact, the biggest threat for Poroshenko and his government today is that they cannot reach a consensus among all the divergences, such as the rise of the extremist forces, populism, and the aloofness of the elite.

In addition, when Ukraine declared to drop the country's non-aligned status in December last year, it actually set itself some potential enemies, which will not solve real problems, while increasing Russia's strategic distrust.

Now, each side remains cautious over whether or not the cease-fire agreement signed in Minsk could be fulfilled. And Poroshenko also acknowledged that the country is still far from peace.

Granted, it is not easy to make every term of the deal take effect, especially for the government of Ukraine.

Hence, what Ukraine can do to prepare itself in this fragile peace remains to be seen.

The author is an associate research fellow with the Institute of Russian, Eastern European & Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn